A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
