Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
